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Bank of America says do not sell in May and go away
  + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Investors should ignore the adage about selling off equities in May as a big preelection summer rally could be coming, according to Bank of America. "Do not sell in May and go away," Stephen Suttmeier, the firm's technical research strategist, told clients in a Tuesday note. He pointed to the fact that June through August has been the second strongest three-month stretch for the S & P 500 for all years since 1928. In those three months alone, the broad market index has gained 65% of the time with an average return of 3.2%, according to Bank of America data. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD And there's a key factor Suttmeier sees changing the narrative for the better this year: the presidential election.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, It's, Jerome Powell, Suttmeier, Williams Organizations: Bank of America, Dow Jones, Federal
"That all really kind of plays right into Ollie's hands." Her $92 price target implies about 17%% upside from Monday's close. The average analyst has a buy rating and target for shares suggesting upside of more than 12%, according to LSEG. Ollie's shares are lagging the broader market in 2024 with a gain of almost 5% versus the S & P 500's 9% gain. OLLI 1Y mountain Ollie's shares over the past 12 months.
Persons: Anthony Chukumba, it's, Price, Melanie Nuñez, Ollie's, Nuñez, Chukumba, OLLI, Truist's Scot Ciccarelli, Ciccarelli, TJ Maxx, BofA's Nuñez, Chukumba's, FirstCash Organizations: Capital, Federal, Amazon, Walmart, Bank of America, Wall, Ross Locations: McDonald's, Harrisburg , Pennsylvania, Monday's, Ollie's
Fed officials have said rate cuts are coming soon, but inflation must still cool further. Markets are placing the greatest odds on a rate cut in June, fed fund futures show. AdvertisementFederal Reserve officials have said interest rate cuts are coming this year, but there's not an exact date in their outlook just yet. Those expectations were little changed after Tuesday's inflation report, which showed CPI came in hotter than expected in February. Reducing our policy rate too soon could result in requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent in the longer run."
Persons: , there's, CME's, Jerome Powell, " Neel Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Federal, Bank of America, Capital, Capital Economics, Labor
Many workers reported cost of living as the most significant reason for moving states for a new job. Cities including San Francisco and Miami saw net population losses in the third quarter of 2023. New data from the Bank of America Institute looks at where job switchers are moving for those new roles , and which cities are increasingly luring in more new workers. San Francisco had one of the lowest shares of job changers moving in at under 11%. For many of these cities, Bank of America found population change and job growth went hand-in-hand.
Persons: , San Francisco, they're, Gen Zers, Bostonians Organizations: Miami, Service, Boston, Bank of America Institute, Los Angeles . Bank of America, of America, Bank of America, Workers, Sun, San Franciscans Locations: Boston, Portland, San Francisco, Boston —, Oregon, Chicago, New York City, Miami, Los Angeles, Columbus, Austin, San Antonio, Las Vegas, Tampa, Seattle
The way Boomers and Millennials are spending can inform investment decisions, Bank of America analysts say. In a note published Friday, BofA analysts wrote that investors should go "long Boomer stocks" and "short Millennial stocks." Specifically, they're spending a lot on health care, entertainment, and home improvement. When they are shelling out, they're spending more on housing and apparel, but are generally more strapped for cash. Millennials, meanwhile, are skint as borrowing costs shoot up and wealth accumulation gets stymied by a historically unaffordable housing market.
Persons: , BofA, they're, Millennials, Boomer Organizations: Bank of America, Boomers, Service, of America, AARP, Toll
The rally in the S&P 500 is capped through the rest of the year, JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos said. That's because there are a litany of negative factors heading into 2024 that will weigh on equities. The strength of the US economy has only postponed a coming recession, not averted one, he added. Stocks could tumble 15% even in the event of a mild downturn, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic predicted in a recent note. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are now pricing in a 42% chance the Fed will raise rates another 25 basis-points in November.
Persons: JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos, Dubravko Lakos, Lakos, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Service, CNBC, Investors, Bank of America, New, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
That’s important, because Americans’ spending on goods and services accounts for two-thirds of US gross domestic product. Historically, sluggish retail sales, credit card delinquency and even shoplifting have been signs of a dark cloud on the horizon. The question of credit card debt is another area where the nuance matters. And as a share of total credit card debt, it is relatively low. But Americans’ credit card debt is unquestionably rising.
Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN —, Macy’s, they’ve, Taylor Swift, Barbie, , Ubers, Covid, Taylor, Sarah Yenesel, Chris Rupkey, Leticia Miranda, That’s, TJ Maxx, Louis Navellier, they’re, Brett Ryan, , Alicia Wallace, you’ll Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Nike, FwdBonds, Atlanta Federal Reserve, , “ Retailers, Deutsche Bank, Walmart, Amazon, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Locations: New York
Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor who became famous for correctly predicting the epic collapse of the housing market in 2008, also made a gigantic bet last quarter on a Wall Street crash. Bank of America released its August global fund manager survey on Tuesday and found that money managers are feeling the least pessimistic about markets since February 2022. So what do Buffett and Burry know that the rest of us don’t? Russia and Ukraine: Global inflation is finally coming down, but heightened geopolitical tensions threaten to raise food and oil prices across the globe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to stoke fears of increased commodity prices, global economic instability and uncertainty around security.
Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, That’s, Michael Burry, Buffett, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, hasn’t, Fitch, , Gregory Daco, Catherine Thorbecke, Catherine Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Securities, Exchange, Scion Asset Management, Bank of America, Traders, National Bureau of Statistics, JPMorgan, CNBC, Bank, First Republic Bank, Huntington Bank, PacWest, Western Alliance, Commerce Department Locations: New York, China, Ukraine, Russia, stoke, Huntington, Lahaina , Hawaii, Lahaina, Las Vegas, Maui
A recent report by the Bank of America Institute compared population with housing supply. San Antonio, Dallas, Orlando, and Houston have high population growth and low housing supply. Anna Zhou, an economist at the Bank of America Institute, said in a recent report that housing supply is unusually constrained right now, as measured by months' supply. Finally, cities in the upper-left quadrant identified in red have high housing supply but a declining population, putting them in the "cold" group. Zhou highlighted San Antonio, Dallas, Orlando, and Houston as among the "hot" cities experiencing high population growth coupled with low housing supply.
Persons: Anna Zhou, Zhou, That's, US . Bank of America Zhou Organizations: Bank of America Institute, Houston, Bank of America, National Association of Realtors, US . Bank of America, BofA Global Research, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Portland , Oregon ., Portland , Oregon . Los Angeles Locations: San Antonio, Dallas, Orlando, Cities, Tampa, Jacksonville, Antonio, Houston, 2Q24, St, Louis, Detroit, Miami, droves, Jacksonville , Florida, Columbus , Ohio, Charlotte, Nashville, San Francisco , New York, Boston, Portland , Oregon, Portland , Oregon . Los
With stocks struggling again on Tuesday , Bank of America's chart analyst said a "tactical correction" is underway and may continue for a bit longer because of seasonal weakness historically in the upcoming period. "If the tactical resistances highlighted above contain interim rallies on the SPX, then a seasonal corrective phase should continue from the late July high." .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD With Tuesday's sell-off, the S & P 500 is off by about 3% from its 52-week high — falling as low as 4465 or so. The S & P 500 is typically flat in August and down 1.08% in September on average during the third year of the presidential cycle, Bank of America data showed. The report suggests investors may win by getting more defensive, rotating into utilities and staples for the time being.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier Organizations: Bank, Bank of America Securities, Bank of America
Minneapolis CNN —More Americans are tapping their 401(k) accounts because of financial distress, according to Bank of America data released Tuesday. It’s a “pretty troubling” development if more people are resorting to making hardship withdrawals, Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, told CNN. Since 2019, household debt balances have increased by nearly $3 trillion, according to New York Federal Reserve data through the first quarter of 2023. Separately on Tuesday, the New York Fed reported that US households’ credit card debt surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time ever. The $45 billion increase in credit card debt helped to drive overall household debt levels to $17.06 trillion at the end of the second quarter.
Persons: It’s, Matt Schulz, , , Lorna Sabbia Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bank of America, Bank of, CNN, Bank of America’s, New York Federal, New York Fed Locations: Minneapolis
And when analysts adjust future earnings estimates higher, share prices often move higher as well. And as Sam Burns knows, capitalizing on shifting analyst expectations can be a profitable investing strategy. In an interview with Insider, Burns explained that he's created a system that tracks analysts' estimates heading into earnings season. Stocks in the top 10% of ESS rankings are roughly three times more likely to see higher analyst estimates in the next month than stocks in the bottom 10%. And with those higher estimates often comes higher price movements.
Persons: Sam Burns, Burns, Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, he's, it's, Organizations: Mill, Research, Wall, Bank of America, Big Tech, Fed, Momentum
Which Presidential Candidates Are Leading the 2024 Money Race? Federal disclosures on Saturday provided a first glimpse of the money race between the presidential candidates for 2024, showing who has amassed the most campaign cash so far. Joint Fund-Raising Committees Joint Fund-Raising Committees Allow two or more political committees to raise money together and pass the proceeds along to their member committees. Generally, a leadership PAC cannot spend money directly on the candidate’s campaign. DONATIONS FROM: Other PACs Individuals $5,000 limit $5,000 limit Leadership PAC $5,000 limit $5,000 limit Other PACs Campaign Committees Limit to campaign committees is for the primary election.
Persons: Donald J, Tim Scott, Joseph R, Biden, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Trump, Tim Scott of, Mike Pence, Doug Burgum, Burgum, Nikki Haley, Kennedy, Chris Christie, Suarez, Asa Organizations: Trump, Republican, Biden, Gov, Republicans, Fund, Democratic National Committee . Campaign, Trump Save America, America, Inc, Mr, Save, PAC, Campaign, Opportunity, Win Data, America Data, America PAC, SFA, SOS America PAC Locations: Tim Scott of South Carolina, Florida, North Dakota, Biden’s
Here are 16 industrials stocks with growth at a reasonable price, according to BMO Capital Markets. Wall Street's obsession with technology stocks has overshadowed what's been an impressive rebound for the often-overlooked industrials sector. Industrials are on pace for their best month since last year in both absolute and relative terms, according to BMO Capital Markets. BMO Capital Markets16 industrials stocks that are cheap with strong growthIndustrials may struggle to maintain their recent momentum, but BMO doesn't recommend avoiding the red-hot sector entirely. BMO Capital MarketsBelow are 16 stocks in the impressive industrials sector that offer better earnings growth than the median stock in the S&P 500 while also trading at a below-median valuation.
Persons: Industrials, what's, Brian Belski, Belski, he's, it's Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, Bank of America, BMO Capital, BMO Locations: laggard, industrials
The unemployment rate climbed to 3.7% in May, according to the jobs report on Friday. This monthly job growth came in far above the forecast of 180,000. Job openings data for April was released by the BLS on Wednesday. Data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that after a few months of job openings consecutively falling, there was an uptick from March to April. The number of layoffs and discharges fell by 264,000 from March to April to 1.6 million, according to the latest JOLTS report.
Persons: , Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor's, Nick Bunker, Nela Richardson Organizations: Service, payrolls, Labor Statistics, BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Labor, Bank of America Institute, Bank of America
As restaurants prepare to present their first-quarter earnings, investors are anticipating strong results. When restaurants released their fourth-quarter reports in February, many touted impressive sales growth in January. Starting in the second quarter, restaurants will face comparisons to last year's sales bump driven by double-digit price increases, so they'll have to depend on higher traffic to drive sales growth. The relatively high valuations for restaurant stocks bring a downside for the industry, McCarthy said. Morgan Stanley's Harbour wrote that stocks could fall even on solid results "if the path forward is less clear."
The recent global bond rally appears to be tapering off as investors are getting a cold wet dose of reality about Fed rate hikes. Bonds compete with stocks for investors’ dollars, and when yields go up, equities often go down. That tonal shift has sent stocks lower and Treasury yields higher, as investors rethink their views on the path of interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s efforts to date to bring down inflation while maintaining a strong labor market appear achievable, she added. “As a result, although Fed rate hikes could slow the labor market in the coming months, we think labor supply faces persistent headwinds in the longer run.”
Bank of America believes small caps will beat the broader market significantly in the next decade. Small caps have outperformed their larger peers lately, and there's reason to believe the trend will continue for the next 10 years, according to Bank of America. The bull case for overlooked small capsBoth valuations and equity flows suggest that small caps are the market's best-kept secret right now. "So definitely for long-term investors, we think this is a great opportunity to overweight small caps." Hall acknowledged that concern but noted that unlike large caps, small caps have already factored in economic weakness.
Tobias Adrian, the International Monetary Fund's monetary and capital markets director,wrote on Tuesday that financial stability risks have risen "substantially." Fed officials have lifted the federal funds rate from near-zero levels in March to the current range of between 3.00% and 3.25%. Financial markets expect the Fed to raise the rate again by three-quarters of a percentage point at its next policy meeting in November. More rate rises are very likely after that, with central bankers penciling in a 4.6% federal funds rate by some point in 2023. Making financial conditions more restrictive is key to how monetary policy operates.
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